A Tale of Two Courtrooms
The Adams indictment and its implications for the Abundance Agenda
Hi All,
Two very different court proceedings happened in New York on Friday, both exemplary of the work we have to do as a community committed to building a better future.
Mayor Eric Adams was arraigned on federal charges including fraud and bribery. He pleaded not guilty, but the jarring record of corrupt behavior has already done damage.
Around the corner, Kathy Hochul’s congestion pricing “pause” was challenged in state court. Judge Arthur Engoron chided the Governor’s lawyers over her framing (“Isn’t the power to pause the power to kill?”) before ruling against their motion to dismiss.
On the one hand, we have the unprecedented indictment of a sitting mayor barreling forward. On the other hand, we have business as usual—a slow grind towards policy progress through the morass of the status quo.
They’re two sides of the same coin, highlighting what we’re up against: a paucity of visionary and effective leadership for New Yorkers.
But we have to be in both courtrooms: following the big electoral stories—in this case, the eventual replacement of Adams by a new mayor—while also doing the hard ongoing work of power-building towards incremental policy wins.
See below for more detail on what the Adams indictment means electorally, and on the broader implications of these developments on our fight for a better New York.
Ryder
The Adams Indictment and Its Electoral Implications
What happens next with the mayor? Electeds are calling on the mayor to resign, but he says he’s not going anywhere. If he does stick it out, he’ll face voters in the mayoral primary next June. Adams will be weakened; it seems fair to predict that one of his challengers would pull out a win.
How will the field shape up now? Comptroller Brad Lander, State Senators Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos, and former comptroller Scott Stringer are all in a better position to win next year than they were on Wednesday. They’ll likely be joined in the field by others—including former governor Andrew Cuomo, who, let’s recall, resigned in disgrace back in 2021.
What would a new mayor mean for us? The next mayor could be better on our issues. Adams proposed the City of Yes for Housing Opportunity to address the housing crisis. But otherwise, he’s abandoned street improvement projects, undermined climate laws, and mismanaged the basic gears of government.
Couldn’t Adams be forced out sooner? Adams might resign, though he would likely have to perceive it benefiting him. The City Charter says he could be removed by Governor Hochul if she wants to cross that bridge. Otherwise, the charter allows for the creation of an “inability committee” that could judge him unable to do the job—the city’s version of the famed 25th Amendment.
Then what would happen? If the mayoralty becomes vacant, the Public Advocate becomes interim mayor. A special ranked-choice election would be called for within 90 days, and it would be a free-for-all: no primary, no restrictions on who can vote. That race would draw in more candidates, all trying to appeal to the broadest electorate. If a special is scheduled, you’ll be hearing from us about it!
Ongoing Fights for Incremental Policy Wins
What’s next with congestion pricing after the dismissal hearing? The Governor has 30 days to appeal Judge Engoron’s ruling; otherwise, the merits of the two cases will be heard. Of course, Hochul can make it all go away by simply flipping the switch. If she needs a reason, she can consider the lack of political benefit to the pause—her approval is now 20 points underwater—or she can refer to the fact that emergency vehicle response times are down due to street-choking congestion.
What’s next for City of Yes for Housing now that Adams has been indicted? There’s some good news. The COYHO plan to build a little more housing across the city—critical to lower rent growth—is headed to the City Council after sailing through an important City Planning Commission vote last week. More good news: a new poll found that 72% of New Yorkers support its provisions, going to show that the loud minority that opposes new homes is just that: a minority.
Okay, but there must be bad news… Unlike congestion pricing, the problem for COYHO isn’t a lack of support from Mayor Adams—it’s his lack of political capital to get it over the finish line. Many council-members have spoken up in support of its provisions, but we know a tough negotiation is ahead. As Brooklyn BP Antonio Reynoso notes, COYHO needs a champion; needless to say, Adams isn't in a strong position to be one.
What are the broader implications of this poor leadership? Hochul’s approval is down; Adams was in a 30-point deficit before his indictment. Voters are checked out from the whole mess: the last city primary had abysmal 6.5% turnout. We’re in a vicious circle of subpar leadership, bad policy outcomes, and disengaged New Yorkers. The implications of poor city and state governance are national: we’ll lose 3 more electoral college votes after 2030.
What else is happening below the indictment headlines?
Our war on rats continues. Outdoor dining was falsely maligned for contributing to rat sightings, and the council failed to retain the vibrancy of the program by making it seasonal. They’re now taking real action against rats, though, by pairing trash containerization with birth control to reduce rat reproduction.
The city is set to legalize jaywalking. That’ll undo a policy designed to entrench car primacy on the streets (and which disproportionately punishes non-white folks). Change is still hard: a fight over e-scooters is raging in Queens.
The Infatuation chose the city’s best bagel. Some things do go right in New York: after an extensive blind taste test, they correctly ranked Ess-A-Bagel #1.